Where Global Emissions Stand Ten Years After the Paris Climate Agreement

Global greenhouse gas emissions are at a record high ten years after the Paris Agreement, but their growth has slowed dramatically and the world has likely avoided a much steeper rise in pollution that once looked inevitable. Even so, current policies still put the planet on course for roughly 2.4–3.1°C of warming, far above the Paris goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Global Emissions Trends Since Paris

Analysis of the first decade after Paris shows that annual CO₂ emissions (including land‑use change) are only about 1.2% higher than in 2015, compared with an 18.4% jump in the decade before, as the growth rate of greenhouse gases fell roughly five‑fold from 1.7% per year pre‑Paris to about 0.32% since. In other words, global emissions are still edging up, but the pace has slowed to the point where experts describe them as close to plateauing rather than continuing on the steep pre‑2015 trajectory.

Yet “record high” remains the operative phrase. UNEP’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report estimates total greenhouse gas emissions at about 57.1 gigatonnes of CO₂‑equivalent in 2023, up 1.3% from 2022 and the highest level ever recorded. The World Meteorological Organization reports that atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have risen by around 5.5% since the agreement was signed, reaching roughly 422 ppm by late 2024, the largest one‑year increase in the observational record. These numbers underscore that the Paris Agreement has bent the curve, but not yet turned it downward.

Temperatures and Where Today’s Policies Lead

A decade on, the world is already significantly warmer than when the Paris deal was struck. Analyses of global temperature data indicate warming of close to 1.2–1.3°C above pre‑industrial levels on recent multi‑year averages, with some individual years flirting with or briefly exceeding the 1.5°C threshold. Climate models suggest that without Paris, emissions could have risen 20–48% above 2019 levels by 2035; current pledges instead point to about a 12% cut over that period, showing that the agreement has meaningfully reduced expected warming even if it has not fully delivered on its goals.

Despite this shift, the gap between where emissions are heading and where they need to be remains stark. The European Parliament’s review of Paris at 10 years estimates that existing policies and pledges collectively point toward roughly 2.4°C of warming, an improvement on the 3.5°C once projected before Paris but still well beyond the treaty’s “well below 2°C” and 1.5°C targets. UNEP’s 2024 Emissions Gap analysis finds that if only current policies are implemented, warming could reach up to 3.1°C, while full delivery of current conditional pledges would still leave the world around 2.6–2.8°C.

The Emissions Gap and Cuts Now Required

Closing the emissions gap now requires much steeper reductions than would have been needed had action started earlier. UNEP calculates that to retain a viable 1.5°C path, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 42% below 2019 levels by 2030 and 57% by 2035. Because emissions have continued to rise, achieving those targets implies cutting around 7.5% of global emissions every year to 2035 for 1.5°C, or about 4% annually to keep warming to 2°C, with the required annual rate of decline increasing with every year of delay.

By contrast, current implemented policies are projected to deliver only a modest reduction by the mid‑2030s—on the order of a 12% cut relative to 2019 levels—leaving a large shortfall relative to the roughly 55% reduction consistent with 1.5°C pathways. This entrenched gap means that many scenarios now foresee at least a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, with increased reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies later in the century to bring temperatures back down, a strategy that carries significant technological and ethical uncertainties.

Sector Snapshots Power Transport and Clean Energy

The power sector illustrates the tension between rapid clean‑energy growth and stubborn fossil dependence. In 2023, renewables produced about 30% of global electricity, with wind and solar providing most of the growth and clean generation expected to rise roughly 9% per year through 2030 in some scenarios. Yet analysis from Ember shows that power‑sector CO₂ emissions still hit an all‑time high in 2024, increasing 1.6% year‑on‑year to about 14.6 billion tonnes as surging electricity demand and weather‑related consumption outpaced clean‑energy additions.

Regionally, the European Union demonstrates what strong policies can achieve, with the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity generation about 40% lower in 2024 than a decade earlier and roughly 9% lower than in 2023 alone, driven by less coal, more renewables and efficiency gains. However, in major emerging economies such as India, power‑sector emissions are expected to keep rising for several years as electricity demand grows faster than clean supply, even though the long‑term goal is to fully decarbonise the power system around mid‑century. Transport, heavy industry and buildings lag even further behind, with structural shifts in technologies and fuels only just beginning to scale.

Has the Paris Agreement Worked

Ten years on, most analyses converge on a nuanced verdict: Paris has significantly improved the outlook, but not yet enough to guarantee climate safety. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit notes that the agreement has helped “defy predictions” by mainstreaming net‑zero targets, spurring an extraordinary surge in clean‑energy deployment and slowing emissions growth almost to a plateau. Similarly, Earth.org highlights that updated national climate plans submitted ahead of COP30 show emissions in 2035 now projected to be far lower than they would have been without Paris, even though they still fall short of what 1.5°C demands.

At the same time, UN and scientific assessments repeatedly stress that a “massive global mobilisation” is now required, led by G20 economies, to deliver the unprecedented cuts that the 1.5°C goal still technically allows. That means not just stronger targets in the next round of national climate pledges but rapid implementation, reform of the global financial system, a many‑fold increase in mitigation investment and far more robust international cooperation. In this sense, where emissions stand a decade after Paris is both a measure of success in bending the curve and a stark warning that the decisive turn downward must happen in the 2020s if the agreement’s promise is to be kept.

Atlantic Renewables’ engineers see first‑hand how rapidly UK households and organisations are embracing these technologies, using rooftop solar and battery storage to cut their own emissions while benefitting from lower, more predictable energy costs. For many customers, especially those with high daytime consumption or EVs, the payback period of a well‑designed solar‑plus‑storage system sits comfortably within the system’s expected 25‑plus‑year life, making it both a climate and financial decision aligned with the Paris goals.

Get in touch

If you are looking to get a solar PV system of your own or have an issue with an existing solar or battery installation, please get in touch with Atlantic Renewables and the team of experts will be happy to help. Call us on 0161 207 4044 and start taking advantage of your new solar system today and to learn more about how our engineers can help you cut emissions, lower bills, and support the goals first set out in the Paris Agreement.