Fossil Fuel Expansion Threatens 1.5°C Climate Goal

Nations’ Fossil Fuel Expansion Plans and Climate Goals

Contrary to global climate pledges, new data from the Production Gap 2025 report reveals that governments worldwide intend to produce more than double the level of fossil fuels by 2030 than is compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit. This planned increase in fossil fuel extraction stands in stark contradiction to the commitments countries made at recent UN climate summits to transition away from coal, oil, and gas.

Global Impact of Ramping Up Coal Gas and Oil

If all planned fossil fuel extraction projects are green-lit, global coal production is projected to rise until 2030, while oil and gas output may continue to surge until at least 2050. The near-term “production gap” is accelerating, with projections showing that planned extraction in 2030 will exceed the amount consistent with 1.5°C of warming by over 120%—up from 110% in the 2023 analysis. Such expansion makes even the 2°C target virtually unattainable.

Why Current Pledges Are Not Enough

Despite net-zero promises and moves to decarbonise, none of the major fossil fuel-producing nations have committed to reducing production levels rapidly enough. Approximately 80% of global production is concentrated among 20 countries, who are instead planning to increase—rather than reduce—output in upcoming decades. The persistent gap between actual extraction plans and climate-safe pathways puts a just and effective energy transition further out of reach.

Economic Dependence Versus Global Climate Responsibility

A critical challenge lies in the economic dependence some countries have on coal, oil, and gas exports for national revenues, job creation, and industrial development. Transitioning requires comprehensive financial support, capacity-building, and equitable burden-sharing across the global community. Yet, since the COVID-19 pandemic, more than $300 billion globally has been channelled toward fossil fuel activity, overshadowing investments in renewables.

Renewable Alternatives Show the Way Forward

Wind and solar PV are now the quickest to deploy and among the cheapest forms of electricity available, offering a tangible route to phasing down fossil fuel use while expanding energy access. Widespread solar adoption can rapidly curb carbon emissions, offsetting 1.5 to 3.5 metric tons of CO₂ annually per kilowatt installed, and is critical for any realistic decarbonisation roadmap. The UK and global partners are urged to invest in rooftop and commercial solar PV systems that reduce reliance on fossil fuels—solutions expertly delivered by Atlantic Renewables.

Atlantic Renewables’ Role in Achieving Climate Goals

Achieving climate targets is impossible without immediate, collective action to halt new fossil fuel projects and accelerate renewable installations. Atlantic Renewables' expert team is ready to advise both businesses and communities on large-scale solar PV and battery storage projects to drive down emissions and enhance local resilience.

The Cost of Inaction: Risks for Future Generations

Ignoring the production gap locks the world into a catastrophic emissions trajectory, threatening widespread ecosystem collapse, food insecurity, and more frequent extreme weather events. Policymakers, businesses, and the wider public must hold governments accountable to revise these harmful extraction plans—and prioritise clean energy investments for long-term prosperity and planet health.

Get in touch

Looking to help close the production gap and shift away from polluting fossil fuels? Atlantic Renewables’s team of experts can support businesses, landlords, and homeowners in delivering high-impact solar PV and battery solutions—future-proofing energy use and putting climate goals within reach. Call us now on 0161 207 4044 for advice and bespoke installation services.